EURUSD Analysis
| Performance | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Friday | 0.57% | 61.4 Pips |  | ||
| Week 2023-11-17 | 2.14% | 228.3 Pips | | ||
| November | 3.2% | 338.7 Pips | | ||
Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Tue 07:00 PM FOMC Meeting Minutes 
Wed 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims 
Thu 05:00 AM Thanksgiving Day
What happened over the week
🇺🇸 U.S. Housing Starts (1-mth) in October rose to 1.372M compared to previous figure 1.346M (revised from 1.358M) Source: Census Bureau
🇺🇸 U.S. Industrial Production (1-mth) in October dropped to -0.6% compared to previous figure 0.1% (revised from 0.3%)
🇺🇸 U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey in November below forecast and improved to -5.9 points compared to previous figure -9 points in October
🇺🇸 U.S. New York Empire State Manufacturing Index in November exceed forecast and rose to 9.1 points compared to previous figure -4.6 points in October
🇺🇸 U.S. Producer Price Index (12-mth) in October below forecast and dropped to 1.3% compared to previous figure 2.2% in September
🇪🇺 Euro Area Industrial Production seasonal adjustment. (1-mth) in September exceed forecast and dropped to -1.1% compared to previous figure 0.6% in August
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Inflation Rate excluding Food and Energy sectors (1-mth) in October below forecast and dropped to 0.2% compared to previous figure 0.3% in September Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth) in October below forecast and dropped to 3.2% compared to previous figure 3.7% in September Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Inflation Rate (1-mth) in October below forecast and dropped to 0% compared to previous figure 0.4% in September Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇺🇸 U.S. CPI Inflation Rate excluding Food and Energy sectors (12-mth) in October below forecast and dropped to 4% compared to previous figure 4.1% in September Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
🇪🇺 Euro Area ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment in November exceed forecast and rose to 13.8 points compared to previous figure 2.3 points in October Source: ZEW
🇪🇺 Euro Area Employment Change (3-mth) in Q3 preliminary estimate exceed forecast and rose to 0.3% compared to previous figure 0.2% in Q2
🇪🇺 Euro Area GDP (seasonally adjusted) (12-mth) in Q3 preliminary estimate unchanged at 0.1% compared to previous report in Q2. The actual figure is also in line with the forecast Source: Eurostat
🇩🇪 Germany ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment in November exceed forecast and rose to 9.8 points compared to previous figure -1.1 points in October Source: ZEW
🇪🇺 Euro Area GDP (seasonally adjusted) (3-mth) in Q3 preliminary estimate unchanged at -0.1% compared to previous report in Q2. The actual figure is also in line with the forecast Source: Eurostat
🇩🇪 Germany ZEW Survey – Economic Situation (Germany) in November exceed forecast and improved to -79.8 points compared to previous figure -79.9 points in October Source: ZEW
🇺🇸 U.S. Monthly Budget Statement in October exceed forecast and improved to -67$ compared to previous figure -171$ in September Source: Bureau of the Fiscal Service
From X (Twitter)
Euro area #GDP -0.1% in Q3 2023, +0.1% compared with Q3 2022: flash estimate from #Eurostat https://t.co/7YufkCo68N pic.twitter.com/0i5uH21VT0
— EU_Eurostat (@EU_Eurostat) November 14, 2023
CPI for all items unchanged in October; shelter up https://t.co/dJyJeKlXDJ #CPI #BLSdata
— BLS-Labor Statistics (@BLS_gov) November 14, 2023
What can we expect from EURUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?
EURUSD on Friday rose 0.57% to 1.09131. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising in overbought zone. For the week ending 2023-11-17, the pair rose 2.14% or 228.3 pips higher.
Looking ahead on Monday, EURUSD looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Friday trading session.
As for the new week, our technical outlook looks bullish, immediate upside resistance level at 1.09964 (WR1) with break above could target 1.10796 (WR2). On the downside, we are looking at week low of 1.06647 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 1.09138 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.
For the month of November, EURUSD is up by 3.2% or 338.7 pips higher.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 1.12455 |
| R2 | 1.10796 |
| R1 | 1.09964 |
| Weekly Pivot | 1.08305 |
| S1 | 1.07473 |
| S2 | 1.05814 |
| S3 | 1.04982 |
You might also be interested in:
New Residential Construction Source: Census Bureau
In October 2023, oil prices fell back slightly Source: INSEE Personal Income by County and Metropolitan Area, 2022 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis In Q3 2023, collective tourist attendance slightly decreased over a year (‑0.2%) Source: INSEE In Q3 2023, hourly wages increased by 4.2% over a year, hourly costs by 4.0% Source: INSEE Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales Source: Census Bureau Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services Source: Census Bureau In October 2023, the prices of frequently purchased goods sold in hyper and supermarkets rose by 8.4% year on year Source: INSEE Construction of buildings indices, Civil engineering indices and miscellaneous indices for construction in September 2023 Source: INSEE
Industrial production down by 1.1% in the euro area and by 0.9% in the EU Source: Eurostat Euro area international trade in goods surplus €10.0 bn Source: Eurostat In October 2023, consumer prices increased by 0.1% over one month and by 4.0% year on year Source: INSEE In Q3 2023, the unemployment rate increased by 0.2 points Source: INSEE CPI for all items unchanged in October; shelter up Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics GDP down by 0.1% and employment up by 0.3% in the euro area Source: Eurostat Business Formation Statistics Source: Census Bureau